April outlook: May to determine the future of the 2025 Ukrainian crop
WEATHER AND GENERAL FIELD CONDITIONS UPDATE
Dry soil conditions are raising concerns across Ukraine, threatening the development of both grains and oilseeds.
From February to April, precipitation was no more than 80% of normal levels nationwide, and in several key production areas it was closer to 50% of the norm.
While this was enough for topsoil to support early growth stages, the deeper layers (up to 1 meter) remain critically dry after a parched autumn and snow-scarce winter. The moisture deficits will become increasingly important as crops move into yield-forming stages.
UkrAgroConsult’s pessimistic yield scenario assumes no significant rainfall in May. If so, early cereals (winter and spring wheat and barley) could lose up to 10% of their yield potential.
For corn, the risks include the possibility that dry weather will not only affect corn vegetation, but also promote lower area in 2025.
April frosts have already delayed spring planting, and the best time for late crops sowing (corn, sunflower, soybeans) is now exceptionally narrow. Rising temperatures and dry soils mean everything must be planted at once and fast—an operational challenge even for the best-equipped farms.
In such a scenario, if farmers are forced to choose between corn and oilseeds, there is a strong likelihood they will favor oilseeds, shifting planted area away from corn.
The prolonged moisture deficit not only threatens crop development, but could also change the distribution of acreage by crop. Under drought conditions, SFS is a more competitive crop than soybean – deeper roots, higher drought tolerance, lower water requirement and more stable yield under stress. Combined with a relatively higher margin in 2024/25, this makes SFS the more attractive option. A shift in acreage is increasingly likely.
Learn more about Ukraine’s crop forecasts and agricultural trends in the report Ukraine: Grain and Oilseed Area & Crop in 2025. Forecast by UkrAgroConsult. This report provides 10 pages of analytics with tables and charts, covering the structure of winter and spring crop sowings, regional specifics, trends in the fertilizer and crop protection markets, and yield forecasts for wheat, barley, corn, rapeseed, sunflower, and soybeans. It is an indispensable tool for agribusinesses, traders, and investors aiming to adapt to changing market conditions.
The report addresses key questions: how weather conditions have affected crop performance, which crops dominate in rotations, and how technological adaptations are shaping production efficiency. Order the report now to gain a clear understanding of the 2025 season and leverage it for strategic planning—from optimizing sowing areas to developing export strategies!
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