Apricot Apocalypse: Global Consequences of the Turkish Frost

Türkiye is the world’s leading producer of apricots, and many countries of the world rely on supplies of fresh, dried and frozen apricots from Türkiye.

However, devastating frosts of April 2025, according to EastFruit team, will change the global apricot markets, impacting price patterns in the EU, USA, Middle East and Central Asia. Consumers in countries such as Ukraine, Uzbekistan, and Germany will face higher costs for fresh and dried apricots, as well as for dairy, bakery, and other products containing apricots. This article examines the winners and losers in this crisis, which is likely to disrupt global fruit markets until at least July 2026.

Shocking Weather Events

In April 2025, Türkiye experienced one of its most devastating agricultural frosts in recent history, with temperatures plummeting to as low as -15°C across more than 36 provinces. This extreme cold snap severely damaged a wide array of crops, including hazelnuts, apricots, grapes, apples, walnuts, almonds, cherries, peaches, plums, and various vegetables. The frost not only decimated current yields but also posed long-term threats to future harvests due to damage to the plants themselves.

Malatya: The Epicenter of the Crisis

Malatya Province, responsible for 85% of Türkiye ‘s apricot production, reported significant losses. The timing of the frost during the blooming period exacerbated the damage. Reports indicate that nearly all 13 million apricot trees in the region were affected, with an estimated production drop from the usual 750,000 tons to just 10,000 tons in 2025.

Economic Repercussions

Türkiye ‘s apricot exports reached $475 million in 2024, with dried apricots accounting for around $400 million. The United States, France, Germany, Australia, and the United Kingdom were among the top importers. Consequently, countries that rely on Turkish imports are facing supply shortages, leading to increased prices and a scramble to source apricots from alternative producers like Spain, Uzbekistan, and Italy.

Impact on Fresh Markets

Türkiye is large but not the largest global exporter of fresh apricots although its fresh segment has been developing faster than dried one in the recent years. Reduced production of fresh apricots in Türkiye will impact mostly local consumers as well as consumers in Russia, which is by far the largest importer of this fruit from Türkiye. Another two countries which will feel a negative impact of reduced supplies and higher prices of Turkish apricots are Iraq and Germany.

It is worth mentioning that apricots are going to be expensive everywhere in Europe in 2025 due to severe frost damage in Moldova, Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, Serbia, Italy, Ukraine, Hungary and other countries. Shortfall of production in Türkiye will just add to these problems.

Impact on Frozen Fruit Markets

Frozen apricots have become an important segment of frozen fruit markets in recent years. Türkiye is one of the global leaders in this segment as well. Thus, the above mentioned problems will have a major impact on the frozen fruits industry, raising prices for alternative segments.

Impact on Industries

Several sectors rely heavily on dried apricots:

• Bakery and Confectionery: Dried apricots are integral to products like fruitcakes, pastries, and energy bars. Shortages may lead to product reformulations or discontinuations.
• Cereal and Snack Foods: Apricots are common in muesli, granola, and snack mixes. Manufacturers may need to find substitutes or face production halts.
• Dairy and Yogurt Products: Apricot inclusions in yogurts and dairy desserts are popular; shortages could affect product offerings.
• Health and Nutritional Products: Given their high fiber and nutrient content, dried apricots are used in health-focused products, which may now face ingredient sourcing challenges.

Excellent Sourcing Opportunities in Central Asia

EastFruit team reports that Turkish processors are already traveling through Central Asian countries, trying to secure supply contracts from the local producers of dried fruits. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, also large exporters of dried apricots, stand to capitalize on this shortfall. Bakhtiyor Abduvokhidov, an international fruit and vegetable expert from Tajikistan, reports that Central Asia anticipates a robust 2025 apricot crop, presenting a prime opportunity to boost export revenues for both fresh and dried apricots.

Despite global supply disruptions, prices for early apricot varieties in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have remained stable at average annual levels. Both countries are currently harvesting and exporting these early varieties. The drying process, which typically begins in a few weeks, is critical to their export strategy.

Tags: Turkey, apricots