Apple prices in Europe are rising for the fourth consecutive season

For each of the recent 3 seasons European consumers witnessed a sharp surge in apple prices, EastFruit notes. New season under way, and forecasts of market analysts suggest a possible for the fourth consecutive season of price increases – completely unprecedented for the once most affordable fruit.

EastFruit’s comparative data, focusing on Eastern Europe reveals how dramatically the baseline shifted in just three years. Similar price patterns, although less dramatic, were observed in the Western and Sothern Europe.

In Moldova, average wholesale costs for Golden Delicious apples, which is the most common variety, climbed from $0.32/kg in 2021/22 to about $0.67/kg in 2024/25. Ukraine’s increase was even sharper, rising from $0.26/kg to $0.69/kg over the same period. Poland followed the same trajectory, with prices reaching approximately $0.60/kg, up from $0.31/kg in 2021/22. Considering growing retail margins, consumers are seeing amazing apple price inflation.

“In Ukraine retail prices of apples are 60-70% higher than prices of bananas, twice as expensive as plums and are on par or more expensive than oranges, although it is an off-season for citrus and they are unusually expensive” says Andriy Yarmak, FAO Economist. He points out that in September-October retail prices of fresh apples will decline but they are still going to be more expensive than many imported fruits and several local alternatives, which is going to impact consumption. Similar situation is observed across the whole of Europe.

This sharp escalation across markets points to a structural shift: apples are no longer simply a low-cost, everyday choice. Climate change leading to regular frost damage, thermal and other persistent stresses on yields have shrunk supply and reduced produce quality. High demand from processing sectors for the apple juice concentrate supports this upward price trend. And behind this trend are other climate-change-related issues causing lower orange juice concentrate production in Brazil. Thus, the apples that would traditionally flow into fresh channels and serving the most price sensitive consumers, has been rerouted to processing, keeping wholesale prices firm and stacking pressure on availability.

That pressure is unlikely to ease soon. Forecasts for the 2025/26 season suggest another year of low apple production in Europe. The EU’s production forecast for 2025/26 remains virtually unchanged from the previous season, lagging approximately 7.5% below the recent three-to-five-year average.

Meanwhile, across Europe, per-capita consumption of apples continues to decline. This is a long-term trend, which has only reversed in 2020 during COVID19 pandemic, but then in 2021 apple consumption has dropped to pre-COVID levels and continued declining.

Despite stable or even rising total fruit intake, apples are losing ground to more appealing or competitively priced fruit categories. The main beneficiaries of lower apple consumption, according to EastFruit, are blueberries and other soft fruits, avocados and exotic fruits overall. “Healthy snacks” category are also responsible for partial reduction of the apple consumption.

“Global fresh apple trade has been stagnating with a slight downtrend for the recent 8-10 years. On the one hand it was possible thanks to improved genetics and better access to technologies, boosting local production and replacing imports but, on the other hand, exports of many other fruits have been surging by 6-8% per year and more. This suggests that apple growers and trading are facing significant challenges in the upcoming years despite improved margins in 2021-2025”, concludes Andriy Yarmak.

Tags: prices, apples, Ukraine, EU