Analysts cut Brazilian soybean export forecast in February due to slow harvest rates

Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach 10.69 million tonnes in February, down about 800,000 tonnes from last week, according to data updated on 24 February by the National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec). This was reported by Brazilian Forbes.

Despite this, Brazilian soybean exports are expected to increase by almost 1 million tonnes compared to last February, when a record was set for the month.

Anec did not provide detailed explanations for the reasons for the lower forecast amid delays in the harvest in Brazil. According to consulting company AgRural, the harvest rate up to last week was the lowest in the last five years for this period, with only 30% of the area threshed as of 19 February.

Slower harvests due to rains, a longer growing season or late sowing dates could create logistical bottlenecks and affect shipments to ports.

The rush to export the newly harvested crop has led to long lines of trucks waiting to deliver soybeans to the river port of Miritituba, from where barges travel up the Tapajos River to export ports in the Amazon.

In addition to logistical challenges, Cargill’s important export terminal in Santarém, Pará state, was temporarily blocked at the end of the week after being seized by indigenous peoples. Protesters are expected to remain at the site for about 48 hours, preparing to leave the area once the waterways decree is lifted.

Anec also lowered its soybean meal export forecast for February to 1.73 million tonnes from 1.82 million tonnes a week earlier. If confirmed, this would represent an increase of 230,000 tonnes year-on-year.

The forecast for corn exports remained virtually unchanged at 1.13 million tons, which is approximately 200 thousand tons less than in February last year.

Tags: export, Brazil, soybean