Ample cereal production sustains stock recovery – FAO

FAO’s latest forecast for global cereal production in 2025 has been raised this month by 0.7 percent (19.9 million tonnes) to 3 023 million tonnes, reinforcing the already anticipated record level. The upward revision mainly reflects higher-than-foreseen wheat yields in Argentina, Canada and the European Union, which have lifted the world wheat outturn to a new all-time high. Similarly, the global coarse grain estimate has been marginally revised upward, placing production at a new peak. The adjustment reflects updated data from China and the United States of America indicating higher maize acreage and better-than-expected yields, while upward revisions to barley outputs in Australia and Canada further strengthen this month’s record outlook. For rice, FAO has increased its global production forecast for 2025/26 by 2.9 million tonnes since December. India accounts for much of this revision, consistent with higher official assessments of the 2024/25 harvest in the country, and with the strong pace of Rabi crop plantings registered during the ongoing season. Coupled with smaller upward adjustments to production in Nepal, Nigeria, and various other countries, this revision more than compensates for downgrades for the Philippines, due to yield depressions caused by storm strikes, and for the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, following historical output revisions for the country. As a result, world rice production in 2025/26 is now forecast at 561.6 million tonnes (milled basis), up 2.0 percent year-on-year and an all-time high. Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia remain forecast to drive this growth, outweighing contractions namely in Madagascar, Pakistan, Thailand, and the United States of America.

Turning to the 2026 crops, the main planting period for winter wheat in northern hemisphere countries concluded in January. In the European Union, early indications point to a likely small increase in 2026 sowings compared to the previous year. Against this backdrop, favourable weather conditions and near-average rainfall forecasts for February-April suggest that yields could remain above the five-year average, albeit below last year’s exceptional levels. In the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, planting intentions indicated that the wheat area is likely to edge up, supported by favourable sowing conditions and more attractive prices relative to other winter crops, such as barley and oats. In the Russian Federation, the wheat planted area is estimated to be marginally lower year-on-year, while limited soil moisture and unusual temperature volatility are weighing on yield prospects. In India, where plantings are forecast to reach a record level due to high domestic prices, the overall outlook for the 2026 wheat crop remains positive, bolstered by continued favourable weather conditions across key northern producing regions. By contrast, low prices have contributed to a slight reduction in winter wheat plantings in the United States of America, where crop conditions have deteriorated over the last two months as drier than normal conditions affected parts of key producing areas.

In the main coarse grain-producing countries of the southern hemisphere, the 2026 harvest is expected to begin in the second quarter of the year. In Argentina, despite forecasts of dry conditions in pockets of the central producing regions in February, maize production is projected to increase year-on-year, driven by a sharp rebound in the planted area from last year’s low and generally favorable crop conditions. In Brazil, robust domestic and international demand could encourage a slight expansion in total plantings, potentially reaching a new high. However, lingering concerns remain over the delays in soybean sowing, which could in turn postpone the planting of the main safrinha maize crop. In South Africa, amid broadly favourable weather conditions and firm demand, the maize area for 2026 is estimated to have increased by 3 percent year on year. Average to above-average rainfall expected in the next months is supporting overall favourable yield prospects.

World cereal utilization in 2025/26 is forecast to rise by 61.8 million tonnes (2.2 percent) from the 2024/25 level, reaching 2 938 million tonnes. The revision is driven primarily by a 3.0 percent increase in the use of maize while utilization of wheat, sorghum and barley is also expected to rise. Global cereal utilization is revised upwards marginally since the December report. Among coarse grains, maize use has been raised, most notably for Egypt due to rapid expansion in the poultry sector and growth in cattle and aquaculture operations, and for the United States of America, where demand for maize in ethanol production has strengthened. These increases are partly offset by downward revisions to the use of barley and sorghum. The forecast for global wheat utilization in 2025/26 has been raised marginally (0.8 million tonnes) since December but is still projected to rise 1.5 percent year-on-year, reflecting anticipated growth in both food and feed use of wheat. As for rice, largely reflecting upgrades to non-food use expectations for India, Pakistan and Viet Nam, FAO now anticipates world rice utilization to reach a record high of 554.9 million tonnes in 2025/26, up 2.7 percent year-over-year and 2.1 million tonnes more than predicted in December.

FAO’s latest forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2026 has been revised upwards by 10.9 million tonnes, now indicating an increase of 67.6 million tonnes (7.8 percent) from opening levels. Stocks of all major cereals are expected to grow – particularly in the major producing and exporting countries – where record harvests are contributing to ample inventories despite robust export activity. The largest volume increase is projected for maize, up 28.7 million tonnes (10.0 percent) over the previous season’s level with Brazil and the United States of America accounting for most of the expansion. Barley stocks are expected to rise by 4.6 million tonnes (16.8 percent), driven mainly by substantial accumulation in the European Union. Global reserves of wheat are projected to grow by 21.7 million tonnes (6.9 percent) by the end of seasons in 2026 with notable build-ups in major exporters Argentina, Canada and the European Union while accumulations are also expected in China and India. Alongside these increases, the global cereal stocks-to-use ratio in 2025/26 is anticipated to rise to 31.8 percent, its highest level since 2001. World rice stocks at the close of 2025/26 marketing years are now anticipated to rise 3.8 percent above their opening level to a fresh peak of 217.7 million tonnes. At that level, stockpiles would stand 900 000 tonnes above December expectations, mainly mirroring an upgrade to reserve expectations for India.

Rising only slightly since the previous forecast to 501.0 million tonnes, world trade in cereals in 2025/26 (Jul-Jun) is headed for an expansion of 17.6 million tonnes (3.6 percent) from the 2024/25 level. Global trade in coarse grains in 2025/26 (July/June) stands at 235.6 million tonnes, up 6.0 million tonnes (2.6 percent) from the 2024/25 level with China, Egypt and the Islamic Republic of Iran expected to increase their maize purchases in 2025/26. World trade in wheat in 2025/26 (Jul-Jun) is forecast at 204.8 million tonnes, up 12.0 million tonnes from the previous season but still 6.5 million tonnes below the record level in 2023/24. Major exporters such as Argentina, Australia, the European Union and the Russian Federation are expected to re-gain market share while sales by Canada are expected to decline from the previous season. Although demand from China remains subdued, forecasts for the Islamic Republic of Iran, Uzbekistan and several other importing countries have been revised upward to meet domestic needs after below-average harvests. International trade in rice in 2026 (January-December) is forecast at 60.6 million tonnes, down 0.6 percent from a revised estimate for 2025. The slight annual trade reduction is expected to be driven by continued cuts in imports by Asian countries, while demand is seen firmer in other regions, especially in Africa.

Tags: India, USA, South Africa, stocks, Argentina, Australia, crop forecast, Iran, grain, Brazil, EU, Pakistan