Algeria forecasts stable wheat and barley harvest for 2025/26

Forecasts indicate that in the 2025/26 marketing year, Algeria will maintain wheat acreage at around 2 million hectares and barley at 1 million hectares, consistent with the previous season. According to Algeria’s Ministry of Agriculture, crops are expected to be harvested from 150,000 hectares in the Sahara, 40,000 hectares more than last year. It remains unclear whether all 150,000 hectares are planted with wheat or include other crops. Overall, 5–8% of Algeria’s cereal crops are cultivated in desert areas.

Most wheat crops are grown in coastal Mediterranean zones and high plateaus, relying on rain-fed irrigation. Based on satellite soil moisture data, wheat production is projected to remain below average at about 3 million metric tons (MMT). However, barley production for 2025/26 is forecast to rise to 1.35 MMT due to abundant spring rains in barley-growing regions.

The planting campaign in October 2024 began under dry conditions, but soil moisture improved by January 2025, surpassing last season’s levels, though still below the 20-year average. During the growing season (January to mid-May), rainfall was uneven, with fields drying out in April. The last six weeks brought more moisture, potentially boosting yields in fertile areas, but prolonged rains into mid-May raise risks of disease and harvest challenges.

The Ministry of Agriculture projects that southern regions, particularly El Menia and Adrar, will each harvest around 100,000 metric tons, Timimoun and Ouargla about 35,000 metric tons each, and Biskra and El Oued 25,000 and 21,000 metric tons, respectively. This would account for roughly 10% of the national wheat production of 3 MMT. Wheat imports for 2025/26 are expected to remain at 9.2 MMT, aligning with projected harvests and domestic needs. For the current season, wheat imports have been revised down to 8 MMT due to slower shipments, particularly from Russia and France.

Barley import forecasts for 2025/26 have been lowered to 550,000 metric tons due to an expected better harvest. Wheat stocks have also been revised: 5.2 MMT for 2025/26 and 5 MMT for 2024/25, reflecting reduced imports. Algeria has halted wheat purchases from France due to diplomatic tensions, while Russian supplies (1.7 MMT in the first 10 months of 2024/25) are constrained by export quotas until June 2025. Analysts suggest Algeria may increase purchases from countries like Canada or Argentina to offset shortages and stabilize stocks by the season’s end.

Tags: barley, wheat, Algeria