Agroconsult raises Brazil’s soybean crop forecast to a record level

Brazil’s soybean production in the 2025/26 marketing year is projected to reach a record 182.2 million metric tons, about 4 million tons higher than the forecast made in November and 10.1 million tons above last year’s output, according to a presentation by agribusiness consultancy Agroconsult on Thursday.

The upward revision is driven by expected higher yields, rising to 62.3 bags per hectare from the previously estimated 60.8 bags. Each bag weighs 60 kilograms. The projection is based on a field expedition covering 14 states, which began last week to assess crop conditions.

Andre Debastiani, who coordinates the crop tour, said the season started under very favorable conditions. “It has been about a decade since we began the crop tour under such positive circumstances,” he noted, adding that there are no major chronic problems affecting the crop so far.

In Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest soybean-producing state, yields are expected at 65 bags per hectare, slightly below last year’s 66.5 bags but still strong given the early-season lack of rainfall. In neighboring Mato Grosso do Sul, crops look better than in the past two years, with yields estimated at 61.5 bags per hectare, more than 10 bags above the last two harvests.

In Rio Grande do Sul, where unfavorable weather had previously reduced yields, farmers are expected to harvest about 52 bags per hectare, 14.5 bags more than in recent years. Agroconsult noted that the forecast could be revised upward as the season progresses, with favorable weather in February and March potentially boosting soybean yields even further.

Tags: Brazil, soybean, crop forecast