Agricultural potential of the Black Sea region: New opportunities and challenges of the 2025/26

During the BLACK SEA GRAIN. KYIV – 2025 conference, Maksym Kharchenko, a grain market analyst at UkrAgroConsult, presented an in-depth analysis of the current situation and prospects for the agricultural market in the Black Sea and Danube regions for the upcoming season.

According to Kharchenko, domestic grain prices in Ukraine surged by nearly 1.5 times during the 2024/25 season. This was driven by a combination of factors, including a dry summer, strong export demand, and global market uncertainty. Global exchange prices remained relatively stable for wheat but rose by 12% for corn.

Key drivers supporting the market included reduced supply and active exports. A notable feature of the season was that the bulk of grain, particularly wheat, was exported in the first half of the season. This has propped up domestic prices, as regional stocks significantly dwindled by the end of the marketing year.

Amid high domestic prices in Russia, its exports were weak and constrained by imposed quotas. Meanwhile, shifts in trade flows revealed new challenges: Russian exports to Turkey plummeted, Bulgaria lost the Indonesian market, and competition for wheat supplies to Algeria intensified among all regional players.

Thanks to favorable prices, most Black Sea countries expanded their wheat planting areas for the upcoming harvest. Russia was an exception, where producers were deterred by duties, quotas, and currency fluctuations. Forecasts suggest that overall wheat production in the region will remain at last year’s level, despite a decline in Russia’s harvest, which will be offset by better results in European countries.

However, global wheat trade volumes are shrinking, leading to an accumulation of ending stocks in key exporting countries. This could exert pressure at the start of the 2025/26 season, as even moderate demand growth from China and Turkey will not fully balance the oversupply.

Weather risks remain a key hope for sustaining prices. The abnormally warm winter of 2024/25 helped winter crops avoid frost damage, but moisture deficits pose a threat to spring vegetation. Rainfall in April and May will be critical for determining future yields in Ukraine, Russia, Romania, and Bulgaria.

The corn market is also undergoing significant changes. Ukraine plans to expand its planting areas, while Bulgaria and Romania are reducing theirs due to drought risks. Demand for Ukrainian corn from the EU remains high, partially offsetting Europe’s reduced corn harvest. Meanwhile, competition from the U.S. in certain markets, particularly in Asia, is intensifying.

In the oilseed market, Ukraine continues to hold strategic positions. Growing rapeseed, sunflower, and soybeans remains profitable despite rising production costs. Thanks to the development of its processing industry, Ukraine has the potential to process its entire oilseed harvest domestically, which is particularly crucial amid fierce competition in external markets.

Ukraine has also strengthened its presence in the Turkish sunflower oil market, while partially losing ground in India and China, where Russian exports have gained traction. The prospects for Ukraine’s oilseeds in the new season depend not only on weather conditions but also on the stabilization of international trade and the resolution of military conflicts.