ADM forecasts 2026 profit below market expectations due to US uncertainty over biofuel policy

ADM forecasts adjusted profit in 2026 below analysts’ expectations due to uncertainty in US policy on biofuels and unstable global trade. The company reported this, Reuters reports.

Against the background of the forecast, ADM shares fell 2.3% in morning trading on Tuesday. The company also recorded its weakest adjusted profit in the fourth quarter since 2019. A decline in soybean processing margins in North and South America, as well as weak soybean exports from the US, reduced profit in the Agricultural Services and Oilseeds division by 31%.

The financial results of ADM and other large agribusiness players are pressured by a global grain surplus that has lowered corn and soybean prices to near multi-year lows. Additional risks are created by delays in the adoption of US biofuels policy and trade conflicts related to President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

ADM’s adjusted fourth-quarter earnings were 87 cents per share, compared with $1.14 a year earlier, but beat analysts’ average estimate of 80 cents, according to LSEG. The company earned $3.43 per share in 2025.

ADM’s adjusted earnings guidance for 2026 was in the range of $3.60 to $4.25 per share, below average market expectations. The company said the guidance is contingent on final approval of biofuel blending quotas and the recovery of soybean processing margins.

ADM CEO Juan Luciano said the completion of biofuel policy decisions could create a more favorable environment for the company in 2026. At the same time, regulatory delays are forcing biofuel producers and feedstock suppliers to postpone deals and investment decisions, affecting production volumes and profitability.

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