Active growth rates of palm oil exports will continue in early 2026

Global palm oil exports will reach 26.2 million tonnes this year, up from 23.95 million tonnes last year, of which 14.12 million tonnes (11.59 million tonnes) will be supplied by Indonesia and 7.85 million tonnes (8.62 million tonnes), according to Oil World (Germany).

A robust pace of palm oil exports is expected to continue at the beginning of next year, as the price competitiveness of crude and refined oil has improved in recent months, particularly due to pressure caused by unusually high inventories in Malaysia.

A significant increase in palm oil imports to India is expected in December-March 2025/26, and a resumption of imports to China, Vietnam, Mexico, Nigeria, and several other countries is also possible.

Global exports are forecast to reach 25.89 million tonnes in 2026, with Indonesia shipping 13.41 million tonnes and Malaysia 8.25 million tonnes.

Global palm oil production in 2026 will reach 43.92 million tonnes, slightly below the expected 2025 figure of 44.35 million tonnes. Specifically, Indonesia’s palm oil production will begin to decline year-on-year starting in the second quarter of 2026 and could reach 25.04 million tonnes, down from 22.46 million tonnes in 2025. However, many uncertainties remain, particularly regarding the impact of strict government intervention. Malaysia could produce 10.42 million tonnes (10.66 million tonnes).

It was previously reported that Malaysia’s palm oil exports fell by 16% in December, indicating a significant weakening in demand and an increase in inventories, which have been growing for the sixth month in a row, increasing by 13% month-on-month to 2.84 million tonnes. Analysts expect the country’s palm oil production to reach 20 million tonnes for the first time next year.

Tags: palm oil