Active export demand supports corn prices in Ukraine

Against the backdrop of active export demand, purchase prices for corn in Ukrainian Black Sea ports increased by $3-4/t or UAH 200-250/t during the week to UAH 10,450-10,550/t or $222-224/t, again reaching the level of prices for feed wheat.

According to the State Customs Service, during March 1-17, Ukraine exported 1.26 million tons of corn (1.6 million tons for the same period last year). And in general, in the 2024/25 MY (as of March 13), corn exports amounted to 15.84 million tons, which is 11% lower than the corresponding figure for last year (17.6 million tons). The rate of corn exports in March and April is usually quite high, since starting from April-May, Argentine corn appears on the market, and from July-August – Brazilian, and buyers switch to purchasing a new crop.

May corn futures on the CBOT exchange in Chicago fell by 2.4% to $181.5/t in a week, losing 11.7% in a month on expectations of tariffs on Mexico, which, on the other hand, contributes to an increase in exports.

During March 7-13, corn exports from the United States decreased by 10% compared to the previous week to 1.659 million tons, which was almost twice the average weekly figure of the season. The main buyer was Mexico, where 346.6 thousand tons of corn were shipped. In total, in the 2024/25 MY (as of March 13), corn exports reached 30.76 million tons, which is 32.6% higher than last year’s pace. By the end of the season, it is planned to export about 31.5 million tons of corn, or 1.3 million tons per week (compared to 845 thousand tons per week in the first 4.5 months of the season).

According to AgRural, as of March 13, 97% of the planned area has been sown with second-crop corn in Brazil, and the weather with precipitation is conducive to the development of crops.

Conab analysts report that 83.1% of the planned area has already been sown, which exceeds the 5-year average. Safrinha corn plantings are expected to increase by 1.9% compared to last year to 16.75 million hectares, and its production in 2024/25 MY in Brazil will reach 95.5 million tons, 5.8% higher than the previous season. Experts assess the current weather conditions as favorable for crop development, thanks to which the average Safrinha yield in the current season may reach 5.7 tons/hectare.

The total corn harvest in Brazil in the 2024/25 MY is estimated at 122.8 million tons, which will exceed the previous season by 6.1%.

Throughout the month, markets will be watching the weather in Brazil, the pace of harvest in Argentina, and the weather in the US during corn planting, as well as anticipating the imposition of tariffs with Mexico.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, prices