Active corn harvest in the US and increased exports from Brazil put pressure on prices in Ukraine

As of October 20, corn was harvested on 65% of the area in the U.S. (55% last year and 52% on average over 5 years), which is the best result since 2012. The dry and warm weather forecast for the next 7-10 days will allow to complete the harvest in record time and with minimal losses.

Almost record soybean and corn harvests will exacerbate the problem of free space in elevators, where farmers still store the remains of corn in 2023 in anticipation of good prices.

Most U.S. farmers are forced to sell corn at low prices, which contributes to the increase in exports, which for the week increased by 97% to 999,8 thousand tons, and in General in MY 2024/25 reached 5.8 million tons, which is 30.6% ahead of last year’s pace and is the best indicator since MY 2018/19.

During the week, December corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were trading at 160 $/t (-1.5% for the month, -26% for the year).

According to AgRural, in Brazil, as of October 17, corn of the first harvest planted 48% of the area, which is slightly lower than last year. However, the increase in precipitation accelerates sowing. In October, the country has already exported 3.9 mln tonnes of corn out of the forecasted 5 mln tonnes, but as the harvest is being completed in the US, the competition between the countries is increasing.

In MY 2024/25, the EU increased corn imports by 6% to 5.7 mln tonnes compared to the previous season, of which 2.8 mln tonnes or 48.7% were supplied from Ukraine, 1.06 mln tonnes or 18.7% – from the US (1.6% last year) and 961 thsd tonnes or 16.9% – from Brazil (43% last year).

Increase in supply of cheap corn from Brazil and the United States increases the pressure on prices in the EU and Ukraine. Thus, during the week, November corn futures on the Paris stock exchange fell by 1.4% to 211.75 €/t or $229/t (+5% for the month).

In Ukraine, export demand prices in the ports of the Black sea decreased by 3-5 $/t to 195-198 $/t or 9200-9300 UAH/t, so processors lowered prices by 200-300 UAH/t to 8500-8600 UAH/t with delivery to the plant.

As of October 18, Ukraine harvested 13.2 mln tonnes of corn with the yield of 5.5 t/ha from 2.4 mln ha or 59% of the area.

In MY 2024/25, Ukraine exported 3.54 mln tonnes of corn (3 mln tonnes in the same period last year).

According to StoneX, the South Korean processor KFA purchased 65 thsd tonnes of corn from the US at 236 $/t C&F for delivery in January, although previously it bought it at 245-250 $/t C&F, which indicates a gradual decline in world prices.

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Tags: Ukraine, corn, prices