Abnormally warm February in India threatens wheat and rapeseed crops

India is expected to experience above-normal temperatures in February, with major wheat and rapeseed growing states expecting maximum temperatures of 5 degrees Celsius above normal on some days, posing a risk to crops, Reuters quoted the weather bureau as saying. Winter crops such as wheat, rapeseed and chickpeas are planted from October to December and require cold weather conditions during the growth and maturation stages for optimum yields.

As the world’s second-largest wheat producer, India had been counting on a record crop in 2025 to avoid costly imports after three consecutive years of poor harvests. India, which is also the world’s second-largest wheat consumer, was forced to ban exports of the staple after a sharp rise in temperatures in February and March 2022 killed crops.

“If temperatures remain above normal for an extended period, yields could be adversely affected, due to moisture deficit,” said Ashwini Bansod, vice president of commodity research at Phillip Capital India. The hot and unseasonably warm weather is depressing production and sharply reducing government reserve forecasts, with wheat prices hitting a record high of 33,250 rupees ($384.05) a ton earlier this month.

Any fall in the rapeseed crop would force India, the world’s largest importer of vegetable oil, to increase imports of vegetable oil into the country, said a Mumbai-based trader belonging to an international trading house.

The planted area of rapeseed, the country’s main oilseed crop, is already down from last year as above-average temperatures during the planting season encourage farmers to switch to crops that are less susceptible to heat.

India is the top buyer of domestic vegetable oils, according to OleoScope. At the end of last year, sunflower oil exports to the country totaled 2.17 million tons, while soybean oil exports amounted to 288,000 tons.

Tags: wheat, India, rapeseed