The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its forecast for the MY 2026/27, which predicts an expansion in soybean acreage and increased production, while a decrease in corn and wheat acreage and a decline in gross harvest are forecast.

The estimates were released on February 20 at the annual Agricultural Outlook Forum. According to USDA Economic Research Service economist Bryn Swearingen, U.S. soybean exports will increase in the new season, while corn and wheat shipments to foreign markets will decline. Carry-over stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year are projected to be higher for soybeans and wheat and lower for corn.

Corn

Corn acreage in 2026 could decline to 94 million acres, down from 98.8 million acres the previous year. Harvested area is estimated at 86.1 million acres (91.3 million), with an average yield of 183 bushels per acre (186.5 bushels).

Gross harvest is forecast at 15.755 billion bushels, down 7% from the 2025-2026 marketing year. Domestic consumption in the food, seed, and industrial use segments is expected to be stable, while feed and other residual uses may decline. Exports are estimated at 3.1 billion bushels (-6% y-o-y). Corn carryover stocks on September 1, 2027, are projected at 1.837 billion bushels, down 14% from the previous season.

Soybeans

In the soybean segment, the USDA expects exports to recover compared to the current marketing year, although the US share of global soybean trade will continue its long-term downward trend.

Planted acreage could increase to 85 million acres, up from 81.2 million a year earlier. Yields are projected at 53 bushels per acre. Soybean production is estimated at 4.45 billion bushels (up 4% from 2025).

Soybean crush will increase to 2.655 billion bushels, up from 2.57 billion bushels this season, driven by rising demand for soybean meal and soybean oil, including from biomass-based biodiesel producers. Soybean carryover stocks on September 1, 2027, are estimated at 355 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from the previous year.

Wheat

The USDA estimates that global wheat production will exceed consumption, leading to an increase in global ending stocks.

In the US, wheat acreage in 2026/27 may decrease slightly to 45 million acres (45.3 million a year earlier). Average yields are expected to be 50.8 bushels per acre, down from 53.3 bushels in the previous season. Production will decline to 1.86 billion bushels (down 6% from 2025).

Wheat use for food will increase to 969 million bushels (from 967 million), feed and other uses will remain stable, and seed use will decrease slightly to 59 million bushels. Exports are forecast at 850 million bushels, down from 900 million in the current marketing year. Wheat carryover stocks on June 1, 2027, will be 933 million bushels, up 0.2% from the 2025/2026 level.

Thus, the USDA expects mixed dynamics across major crops: with corn and wheat production declining, the soybean market shows potential for growth, and the structure of carryover stocks reflecting changes in the balance of supply and demand.

Tags: stocks, corn, soybean, wheat, USA