Grain export quota from russia is expected to be reduced by two-thirds in 2025

Russia’s grain export quota, which will be in effect from February to June next year, could be almost three times smaller than the 29 million tons a year earlier due to high export rates in recent months and a worse-than-expected harvest, experts said.

Russia allows grain exports without quotas from July to January, the first half of the export season, and then imposes quotas among some 260 domestic traders authorized by the authorities to sell grain on international markets.

Russian consultancy IKAR forecasts export quotas in the second half of the 2024/25 season at 11.5-12.0 million tons.

“The calculation is based on export rates, crop forecasts and domestic needs,” said IKAR head Dmitry Rylko, quoted by Interfax news agency.

Andrei Sizov, head of the SovEcon consulting company, predicts a quota of 10 million tons.

Igor Pavensky, head of the analytical center of Rusagrotrans, Russia’s main railroad grain carrier, estimated the quota at 9-10 million tons “taking into account current export rates and forecasts for December and January”.

Market participants expect the official grain quota size to be announced in January. The official estimate of export potential for the new season is 55-57 million tons of grain.

Russian companies have been supplying grain to the international market at a near-record pace in recent months, despite a lower harvest due to bad weather as well as low global prices.

New export conditions announced in October and, sources said, a return to the Agriculture Ministry’s recommendations for minimum export prices also helped accelerate shipments last month.

Arkady Zlochevsky, head of the Russian Grain Union, estimated Russian grain exports this season at 25.1 million tons as of Nov. 1.

Russia introduced export quotas in 2020 to protect the domestic market. From 2021, the quota applies only in the second half of the season from February 15 to June 30.

In early 2024, the initial quota of 24 million tons was increased by another 5 million tons amid record grain exports in the previous season, which were estimated at no less than 72 million tons.

According to Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut, the quota was only 76% utilized, which entails penalties for traders who failed to meet the quota.

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Tags: Russia, export, grain, wheat, restrictions