100–300 thsd ha of rapeseed in Ukraine at risk of reseeding

The Ukrainian rapeseed market enters the spring season with uncertainty over crop conditions and potential production volumes. Reduced cultivation areas, weather risks, and the possibility of reseeding could significantly affect the supply balance at the start of the new marketing year.

According to the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, rapeseed areas this season total around 1.05–1.1 million hectares, but 100–300 thousand hectares may need reseeding. This is a significant figure for the crop, and actual areas could fall below 1 million hectares. Analysts advise waiting for the March crop monitoring results for a more accurate assessment.

Indicative prices for the new rapeseed harvest currently stand at $530–535/t, with some forward contracts in western regions already agreed at $540–543/t for volumes of 2–3 thousand tonnes. On the European Euronext platform, rapeseed quotations are holding at 485–495 €/t without a clear trend.

Analysts caution against excessive activity on the forward market, as a lower-than-expected total harvest could trigger sharper price increases.

Attention should also be paid to the situation in the EU, where rapeseed planting areas are not expanding. European processors traditionally rely on Ukrainian raw materials, so a reduced Ukrainian harvest may intensify competition for resources and increase market volatility in the second half of the year.

Tags: Ukraine, rapeseed, crop condition