Pakistan plans to import up to 1 mln tons of wheat amid failed grain market reform

Pakistan plans to import up to 1 mln tons of wheat to meet domestic demand amid problems with grain production and procurement. Following the abolition of government-guaranteed support prices and large-scale public procurement in April 2025, local farmers have faced market instability and declining wheat profitability. According to Dawn, the government’s market-based grain trading system has so far failed to provide producers with adequate protection against price fluctuations.

The consequences of the reform are particularly evident in Punjab, which accounts for more than 76% of Pakistan’s wheat production. In April 2026, provincial authorities attempted to resume procurement through private companies with bank financing, but the program largely failed. Only 160 thsd tons of wheat were purchased against a target of 2.5 mln tons. Banks questioned the commercial viability of financing the purchases, contributing to the program’s failure and a decline in market prices.

Uncertainty in the grain market is already affecting wheat production plans for the new season. At a Federal Committee on Agriculture meeting in early October, Punjab authorities declined to commit to the province’s wheat production target of 25 mln tons. As a result, the government was unable to finalize the national wheat production target of 33 mln tons. Farmers are increasingly considering reducing wheat acreage or switching to alternative crops.

The situation is being aggravated by rising production costs, water shortages, unfavorable weather conditions, and increasing pest and disease pressures. Meanwhile, wheat prices have risen from PKR 1,800 to PKR 4,500 per 40 kg over the past five years, while a proposed increase to PKR 5,000 could further push up flour prices. In urban areas, flour prices already exceed PKR 150/kg, adding to the financial burden on consumers.

Against this backdrop, the federal government is considering importing up to 1 mln tons of wheat to stabilize the domestic market. However, foreign grain purchases amid uncertain returns for local producers could put additional pressure on domestic prices. Future developments will depend on actual production volumes, government stock levels, and coordination between import policies and farmer support measures. Without an effective market regulation mechanism, Pakistan risks declining wheat production and growing dependence on imports.

Метки: пшеница, прогноз урожая, Пакистан