Rapeseed price in Ukraine: current analytics and forecasts for 2024
Prices for agri commodities
Analytical Reports
Agricultural exports are the engine of the Ukrainian economy: wheat, flax, peas, soybeans, and many oil seeds. Rapeseed oil is used in many areas, and it is quite difficult to grow this plant on your own. This crop requires special conditions and careful maintenance. And Ukraine is an international seller of rapeseed.
Where is rapeseed used?
Rapeseed can be called a hybrid of field rape and garden cabbage. The origin of this crop is constantly debated.
The Mediterranean is considered to be the natural location of rapeseed – it is there, according to scientists, that the first harvest of this plant was harvested. In the wild, the crop is found in Europe, America, North Africa, and Asia.
It is an annual plant with a high level of oil content, which allows it to be used in many areas:
- pharmaceuticals – rapeseed is used as a raw material for some medicines;
- food industry – the plant is used in the production of cooking oil, mayonnaise, bakery products, and rapeseed honey;
- chemical industry – the plant is used to produce high-quality biofuel;
- light industry – textiles are produced from rapeseed;
- cosmetics industry – rapeseed oil is often one of the main components of many care products, as it has moisturizing and nourishing properties;
- agriculture – rapeseed meal and cake are used to produce animal feed, as the plant is rich in proteins, fats and mineral salts.
Rapeseed oil ranks 3rd in the world in terms of production after soybean and sunflower oil, and 4th in terms of exports and imports after sunflower oil. It has great potential due to its relatively low cost. The plant is rarely sold in its raw form.
Rapeseed acreage in Ukraine
The country is among the top 5 leaders in rapeseed supply. The main sown areas are located in Vinnytsia, Odesa and Mykolaiv regions.
Growing this crop requires special requirements for soil cultivation and farming, strict adherence to all technical standards and timely preventive protection against pests and diseases. Rapeseed is also very sensitive to moisture.
Results of 2023 on rapeseed exports to Ukraine
The price of rapeseed in Ukraine is one of the most affordable in the world. Despite the full-scale invasion and the fact that some areas used for rapeseed cultivation were under occupation, the sowing campaign was held at a decent level. The company cultivated 1.1 mln hectares, harvested and threshed 3.2 mln tons of rapeseed at a yield of 28.9 c/ha.
According to the results of 2021-2022, the supply of oilseeds to foreign markets amounted to 2.7 mln tons, which is a fifth of the total world exports.
The main importers of Ukrainian rapeseed were the countries of the European Union, which accounted for about 67% of the total amount of shipments sold on foreign markets. This is 10% less compared to the previous years. In the ranking of the EU’s rapeseed suppliers, Ukraine ranked second after Australia, with Ukrainian oilseed accounting for about 30% of the total imports to Europe. Other importers were:
- Pakistan — 12%;
- United Kingdom — 9%.
In the 2022/2023 season, rapeseed processing increased by almost a third, with analysts estimating 421 thsd tonnes, which is a record for this segment.
Factors affecting the price of rapeseed
The purchase prices for rapeseed in 2022 depended on the exporting country:
- Ukraine ~ 450–455 $;
- Germany ~ 600–610 €;
- Romania ~ 565–585 €.
At the beginning of 2024, the average price of rapeseed in Ukraine per ton was about $460. The following factors will influence the pricing in the new season:
- The level of demand for rapeseed in Europe and globally.
- Availability of last year’s stocks in warehouses.
- Number of offers on the market from exporting countries.
- Quality of the harvest.
- Production costs.
- The size of the area to be planted.
- Weather conditions.
- Logistics and shipping costs.
- Currency exchange rates.
After studying these conditions, the price per ton of rapeseed is calculated. The customer usually pays for the batch by transfer to an official account rather than in cash.
Factors affecting yields
Rapeseed tolerates frost well, but moisture levels are important for this crop. Insufficient or excessive moisture can have a negative impact on the yield. In addition, the following factors are important:
- genetic potential of rapeseed;
- preliminary cleaning of the soil from weeds before sowing;
- high-quality plowing and cultivation of the soil (for winter varieties);
- drying and treatment of seeds a few weeks before sowing;
- additional fertilization of the first seedlings.
Ukraine grows two types of rapeseed: winter and spring:
- Winter rapeseed has a yield of up to 30 centners per hectare and is sown from August to September. It is not afraid of frost and does not like excessive moisture. For better germination, it should be planted to a depth of 3 cm with a row spacing of 30 cm.
- Spring rape is sown in the spring to a depth of 2 cm, with a distance of 15 cm between rows. Before flowering, the stems are mowed. This rapeseed tolerates heat and drought well, with an average yield of 8 to 15 centners per hectare.
After harvesting, the crop should be stored in an elevator.
The growing season of rapeseed seeds
Winter rapeseed ripens in 180-350 days, while spring rapeseed can be harvested in 80-120 days.
There are also late-ripening, mid-ripening, and early-ripening varieties that determine the exact ripening time. Depending on the type of rapeseed, sowing and harvesting campaigns are planned.
Often, several types of rapeseed with different vegetative periods are used in one agricultural sector to maximize the yield.
With proper care, optimal crop rotation, compliance with the required sowing rates and timely harvesting, you can get a batch of the highest quality rapeseed. The packaging can be from 1 to 50 kg, depending on the purpose of the product.
Forecasts for 2024
Despite all the difficulties, in 2024 Ukraine plans to increase the area under oilseeds to 8.28 million hectares. Growing rapeseed requires low inputs, which are expensive on the global market. This crop has a high margin, so it is profitable to sow and sell it in bulk.
The allocated land will be used to grow not only rapeseed but also sunflower and soybeans.
The increase in acreage is due to the great popularity and high yields of rapeseed. It is generally called the crop of the future because it can be used to produce technical raw materials and biodiesel. Rapeseed also improves the performance of the soil it grows on and has a positive impact on crop rotation.
Experts predict that in 2024, the demand for rapeseed will continue and may even grow, as the world is experiencing a trend of increasing consumption of vegetable oils, especially in the US, Argentina and Indonesia.
In addition to exports, rapeseed can also be ordered for the domestic market of Ukraine. The companies processing the crop have established operations in the face of emergency and scheduled power outages. The export situation may be affected by the instability of grain corridors and queues for unloading at ports. However, this impact is expected to be non-critical.
According to the worst-case scenario, if Ukrainian ports will not be able to operate fully, the minimum processing of rapeseed is expected to be no more than 100 thsd tonnes (-76% by 2021/22 MY). If everything is stable, the production volumes will be about 280 thsd tonnes (-33% compared to 2021/22 MY).
Given the unstable operation of the ports, the export of rapeseed is expected to reach 2.4-2.6 mln tons. According to the optimistic forecasts, this figure will increase to 2.75 mln tons, which may be about 16% of the global exports.
The demand for rapeseed from European companies is expected to be stable, but logistics remains a weak point and jeopardizes the success of the trade.
First results of 2024
The end of 2022 was pleasing with unusually high exports of rapeseed from Ukraine during this period. In total, about 213 thsd tonnes were exported, which was the highest figure for this month since 2009.
January 2024 was also marked by the increased demand for rapeseed, and the price of this crop’s seeds also increased.
FAQ
1. What factors affect rapeseed prices in Ukraine?
Rapeseed prices in Ukraine depend on a number of factors, including world rapeseed prices, demand for rapeseed oil, weather conditions, yields, currency exchange rates and the political situation.
2. Which countries are the main exporters of rapeseed from Ukraine?
Ukraine exports rapeseed to the countries of the European Union, such as Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, as well as to Asian countries, in particular India and China.
3. What varieties of rapeseed are grown in Ukraine?
Ukrainian farmers mainly grow winter rapeseed, which has better yield and seed quality, compared to summer rapeseed. Winter canola has a higher oil and protein content, which makes it more valuable to the processor and consumers.
4. What are the prospects for the development of the rapeseed market in Ukraine?
Ukraine has great potential for the development of the rapeseed market due to the increase in demand for rapeseed oil on the world market, as well as the improvement of breeding work and agricultural technology. The introduction of new varieties of rapeseed with higher yield and quality can help increase the production and export of rapeseed from Ukraine.
5. What are the forecasts for rapeseed prices in Ukraine?
Forecasting rapeseed prices in Ukraine depends on many factors, such as world rapeseed prices, market supply and demand, weather conditions, economic and political factors.