Rapeseed prices in Paris rise on data on low yields in Ukraine

According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, as of July 4, domestic farmers harvested 285.9 thousand tons of rapeseed from 12% of the area or 186.9 thousand hectares (47.7 thousand hectares last year) with an average yield of 1.53 t/ha, while last year at this time the yield was 1.81 t/ha.

On the stock exchange in Paris, the price of rapeseed is actively growing for two weeks in a row. On Friday, on the news of low yields of rapeseed in Ukraine, August futures rose by 1.3% to 508.25 €/t or 550.4 $/t (+10% in two weeks) and exceeded the May high of 495 €/t.

The price increase was not stopped even by the news of the sale of new shipments of canola from Canada to the EU. And based on the price difference of up to $70/t, the pace of canola supplies will increase.

On the Winnipeg Stock Exchange, November canola futures on Friday rose 1.2% to 658 CAD/t or $482/t (+6.5% for two weeks), which corresponds to the level of the previous month, and is still inferior to May 695 CAD/t and a record 770 CAD/t recorded in early September.

However, the growth of prices for canola is limited by low exports and good weather conditions. According to StatsCan, in June 24-30, Canada increased the exports of canola from 184 thsd tonnes to 252 thsd tonnes compared to the previous week, and in total in 2023/24 MY the country exported 6.2 mln tonnes of canola, down 18% compared to the previous season.

Canada has another 1 mln tonnes of old-crop canola that can be supplied to the EU and will replace the supply of rapeseed meal from Russia and Belarus, which are subject to import duties.

In Ukraine, due to the delayed harvesting in the central and western regions, as well as the restraint of sales by producers, export purchase prices for rapeseed last week rose to 22000-22500 UAH/t or 480-495 USD/t with delivery to the Black Sea ports. Demand prices for deliveries to the EU also increased by 10-20 €/t to 470-490 €/t, but deliveries are possible not earlier than October — November, as now the rapeseed is actively sold by local producers.

Oil prices remain at a high level of 86.4 $/barrel, which supports the quotes for rapeseed. However, the opposition president elected in Iran plans to strengthen cooperation with the West, which may reduce the escalation in the Middle East and, accordingly, oil prices.