In the new season 2024\25, Ukraine will remain the leader in the global sunflower oil market

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Svitlana Kupreeva

Oilseed Market Analyst

Ukraine and russia remain the key producers of sunflower and sunflower oil in the world. In 2022-2023, scenarios of Ukraine’s prospects and leadership in SFO market looked negatively. However, a more positive scenario is currently being realized.

According to the USDA, Ukraine’s share in the global SFO trade in 2023/24 will be almost 41%, and russia’s – 30%.

SFO exports (forecast, 2023/24):

• Ukraine – (-3% by 2022/23, higher exports are likely if temporary sea corridor efficient functioning);
• russia – (+10%, export increase 3 seasons at row).

For most of the 2023\24 season, the spread was positive for SFO prices compared to soybean and palm oil prices.

2024/25 Season

UkrAgroConsult forecast for Ukraine SFS harvest looks optimistic, based on an expansion of sown areas by 2.6%. If only average yields achieved, the 2024 SFS production will increase by 2%. The forecast for 2024/25 SFO exports is also not lower than in the current 2023/24.

russia not for the first time announces a reduction in the SFS sown areas in 2024 (-2% compared to 2023). It is likely that in the new season 2024\25 this scenario will come true, as farmers’ margins of soybeans, rapeseed  and flax are growing.

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Tags: crop forecast, Ukraine, Russia, sunflower oil, export, prices, sunseed, sown area