China beef imports to slow in 2021 on lower Australian supply – Rabobank

Growth of beef imports by China will slow to less than 20% next year, a leading industry analyst said on Tuesday, amid lower supplies from key exporter Australia and as the country boosts domestic pork production.

China, which accounts for a quarter of the global beef trade, has rapidly expanded its beef imports in recent years, with shipments up 60% last year to 1.66 million tonnes and up 40% this year to date.

But imports from China’s third largest supplier, Australia, are set to fall amid smaller output and heightened political tensions between the two countries, Pan Chenjun, senior analyst at Dutch bank and agribusiness consultancy Rabobank, told a media briefing.

China has suspended six Australian beef plants from supplying its market so far this year, citing reasons like labelling issues.

“For this reason, I think China’s import (growth) won’t be as strong as the previous two years, and maybe less than 20%,” she said.

Its pork supplies are also recovering “much faster than expected” after the world’s largest hog herd was devastated by an epidemic of African swine fever.

A close relationship between pork and beef prices this year – previously more obvious between pork and poultry – have demonstrated that consumers were substituting beef for pork, said Pan.

Testing of frozen foods for the coronavirus at Chinese ports has also slowed beef imports but is not expected to have long-term impact, she added.

Overall demand for beef in China remains strong, however, reflected in high domestic prices.

With restaurants shut during China’s lockdown earlier this year to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus, consumers switched to purchasing beef for home cooking, boosting retail sales of a meat that is not part of a traditional Chinese diet.

“The epidemic has been a really revolutionary year for beef and brought beef into household consumption from the catering channels of the past,” said Pan, who noted the role played by China’s rapidly growing ecommerce platforms.

Reuters

Tags: Rabobank, China beef imports