2020/21 season: where is the lower limit for sunflower seed crop forecasts in Ukraine?

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Svetlana Kupreeva

Oilseed Market Analyst

This 2020/21 marketing year becomes unusual for the market of sunflower seed and its products in many respects: official data on planted acreage, harvest progress, weather surprises, revision frequency and range of crop estimates, price behavior etc.

The weather factor played the key role in adjusting crop estimates from moderately optimistic early in the calendar year to record high in the mid-summer (17 MMT), which was followed by lower figures.

Trade sources still put their forecasts for the sunflower seed crop within a wide range (12-14 MMT), UkrAgroConsult reports.

The domestic sunflower seed market has also risen to a new level of over UAH 16,000/MT, having actually avoided a price decline during the active phase of the harvest.

Exportable supplies of sunflower oil will decrease. The key importers will have to compete for available sunflower oil, especially in the latter half of the season; already now sunoil market prices are warmed up to an eight-year high – this marketing year they have been testing the new record levels.

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